Digital library (interview) RAI Educational

Scott Winkler

Cannes, ITxpo97, 04/11/97

"Sun's strategy"

SUMMARY:

  • Sun was right to take Microsoft to court over Java. If Microsoft were allowed to continue to relegate Java to language status only, that would hamper Sun's ability to make it a broad, ubiquitous environment. By going to court, the issue will be resolved once and for all (1).
  • The US Department of Justice have called Microsoft "an illegal monopoly". It seems that it is determined to take an aggressive position against Microsoft (2).
  • Winkler does not see a way to break up Microsoft's monopoly. Microsoft's intention is to drag out the court case as long as possible and they will not accept terms that they believe will hurt their business. There are also political questions about whether anti-trust laws in general apply to the current technological world (3).
  • Intel and Sun are great competitors yet Sun has chosen to implement its operating system Solaris on the Intel processor but Sun can be successful without a successful Intel product and the Intel world will continue to be dominated by Microsoft and Windows NT (4).
  • Most users are sceptical about Microsoft's support of Java and have not committed themselves to the Microsoft implementation of Java for mission-critical or other kinds of applications. Those who want to exploit Java will be able to do so on all of their platforms, with or without Microsoft's help. Microsoft jumped on the Java bandwagon because they wanted to improve their browser share but they have since taken other steps to do that (5).
  • Making Java more capable for mission-critical applications will take time and energy, but it can be done. Most organisations will wait for the technology to be proven before they put it into production (6).
  • Winkler expects Sun to be very competitive on the high end of the server business, but continue to lose market share at the low end where Windows NT and Intel are doing so well (7).

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INTERVIEW:

Question 1
Do you think it is wise for Sun to go to court over Java?

Answer
Yes. Microsoft has clearly attempted to define Java as a language and to implement it as a language but not as a complete environment. Strategically, Sun very much wants Java to be a complete computing environment, read that to mean an operating system. If Microsoft were allowed by Sun to continue to relegate Java to language status only, that would hamper Sunís ability to make it a broad, ubiquitous environment. By going to court, they are going to get a resolution to that issue. They might win and they might lose, but it will be resolved. And when itís resolved, the situation will be clearer. The risk associated with going to court is a risk that Sun is willing to take. However, they have understood that if they stayed out of court, the situation would remain unclear forever. We are not attorneys and we do not know whether they will prevail in court. However, we do believe that it will be a clear decision and that in the end it will be helpful for Sun.

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Question 2
Some pour scorn on the idea that there will be any action to have the possibility of a break up pushed forward. Do you agree with that?

Answer
We believe that the US Department of Justice will be aggressively pursuing Microsoft for some time to come. They have made very clear indications that, win or lose with their current skirmish over Microsoftís 1995 consent to agree with the US Department of Justice, the US Department of Justice will more than likely continue and file more lawsuits against Microsoft. They have used words recently that are very clear. They have called Microsoft "an illegal monopoly" and those are very much fighting words. They come from officials of the US Department of Justice, the Attorney General and the assistant Attorney General. They are the position of the US government; itís very clear. We believe that they are determined to go after Microsoft hard, and that they believe that busting up that trust is important for US policy. So we disagree with Mr. McNealyís view of that. He was making some comments about political influence, and frankly what we see from the political people in Washington is quite the opposite. They seem aggressively anti-Microsoft.

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Question 3
And if they were anti-Microsoft, how would they break up the monopoly?

Answer
That is a value judgement that we are not ready to place on the issue. You would have to put a certain set of conditions on a question like that to get us to respond. What I donít want to do is give you any indications as to whether we believe Microsoft is an illegal monopoly. Thatís a legal question that we canít answer. So thatís not the issue. What we do is analyse what would happen if Microsoft won or if Microsoft lost. We can analyse what a break-up of Microsoft would do to Microsoft and the industry. Iíve read and seen hundreds of break-up scenarios, however, I have yet to see one that I felt was workable, in the sense that it defined a new environment where the kind of competition that the regulators want to stop would effectively be stopped. I can throw the question back rhetorically: where does one draw the line between operating systems and applications? What is an operating system, what is an application, and how would one break that up? The question has come back to us on a number of occasions and we have examined a number of scenarios. Yet we have not seen one scenario that we were certain would work. We think we are fairly expert in our technical abilities. We also believe that the regulators and the officials with the US Department of Justice and other governments around the world are less expert in technology. Yet with all our expertise we donít see a really good formula for doing such a thing. We would imagine that the kinds of revenues that would be asked for by courts or by departments of justice and administrators of justice alike would be very difficult. So weíre not saying that would be workable in a certain circumstance. Microsoftís intention here, of course, is to drag this out as long and as hard as possible. And it is our prediction and indication that, regardless of what suits or files against Microsoft, that they will fight long and hard. Theyíll accept terms that donít matter, such as their 1995 consent to agree which allowed them to continue to do their practices as they wished. But they will not accept terms that they think or believe will hurt their business. They would rather go to court over the long haul and believe that they could prevail, especially in the circumstance where, as Mr. McNealy did point out, there are political questions with respect to whether anti-trust laws in general apply to the current technological world. They certainly apply to the industrial world early 20th century. The question on the table is: do they apply to a post-industrial information world, in the late 20th and 21st centuries? That question has to be answered by politicians. So it could get very interesting and the point regarding whether it moves out of the legal space into the political space is another thing that Microsoft would hope to put forward, in essence taking a nationalistic policy within the US and saying: Why would we want to break up a US company in that regard? They'll fight.

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Question 4
Could you explain why Intel is important for Sun.

Answer
Intel and Sun are great competitors yet Sun has chosen to implement its operating system Solaris on the Intel processor. We believe this to be a great quest of Sun's but one that has been unrequited so far, one that will remain challenging for them. In the end we do not believe that Intel is terribly important for Sun. We believe Sun can be successful without a successful Intel product. Today Sun is very successful without a successful Intel product. So you can look at that as all up-side, no down-side for Sun on Intel. They might do better, they probably can't do worse, and technically it's not a huge investment for Sun. They did win a contract from NCR some months ago and they might win more. We consider those to be inconsequential for the industry at large, and expect the Intel world to be fundamentally dominated by Microsoft and Windows NT, not Sun Solaris. The market share for Sun Solaris on Intel will most likely be imperceptible in a few years.

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Question 5
Do you agree with the statement that Microsoft is not a necessary distribution channel for Java on Windows, and do you think that a possible decision for Microsoft might be to walk away from Java and if so, how would that play out for Java?

Answer
We believe that most users have been sceptical about Microsoft's support of Java up to this point and have not been committing themselves to the Microsoft implementation of Java for mission-critical applications or for other kinds of applications. And those users who want to exploit Java will be able to exploit Java on all of their platforms, with or without Microsoft's help. Those who want to write Windows applications will be able to write Windows applications, regardless. Now, we suggest to them if they're going to write a Windows application that they not use Java as the language to write Windows applications. Visual Basic comes to mind, C++ , those are good languages to write a Windows application. Not necessarily Microsoft's Java tools. But in the end Microsoft did jump on the Java bandwagon because their browser share was zero or close to it, and they felt that they had to make a move to gain browser share. They have made a lot of other moves since then to gain browser share. We do not believe that their browser share would be diminished considerably if they did not have good Java support in it. So the scenario that McNealy is putting forward is reasonable, but for the contractual commitments. They have a contractual commitment. It's in court right now. What McNealy is saying is that he wants to hold them to it. They signed a document which was made public that appears to require them to support Java in some formal venture. That will be decided by litigation.

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Question 6
Let's go back to mission-critical applications in Java. What does Sun need to do to get the industry to have faith in Java?

Answer
Making Java more capable for mission-critical applications will take time, energy and the work of individuals who have experience in that arena. We do not believe that there is a technical hurdle that will keep Java from becoming capable of doing those kinds of tasks. It's a lot of work, a lot of writing of code, testing, making mistakes, correcting mistakes, and moving forward. Organisations who want to be early adopters will be assisting the market in moving forward. Most organisations will wait for the technology to be more proven before they put it into production. I am referring to the more classical companies which make up a large portion of the market. There's nothing different with this phenomena or this technology direction than all the others we have seen in the past. Sometimes adoption cycles take longer because technologies do not mature because they have some fundamental flaw. We do not believe that Java is fundamentally flawed. We believe that the one issue that's consistently raised with respect to interpretation versus compilation is a performance penalty but not a flaw necessarily. And that that can be overcome.

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Question 7
McNealy said that he wants Sun to continue to match the pricing NT service.

Answer
The comments that we were making were not with respect to competition with NT servers, they were with respect to competition with other large UNIX servers. When it comes to competition with NT servers, firstly, we do not believe they are price competitive with Compaq ProLiant 6000s, although they are closer than they have been. But secondly and more importantly, we have yet to meet the customer who was planning to put NT on a Compaq, who looked at the new Sun devices and decided to put in a UNIX system and run it on a Spark. It's not a likely buying decision change that people would make, especially at the departmental PC server workgroup level. So the net effect of the new class of server at the low end is that people who were buying UNIX servers for UNIX-type applications are now getting them less expensively, and for that they're very thankful. But we don't see Sun getting back any business from Microsoft and Intel in that regard, nor do we expect them to. We expect them to be extraordinarily competitive on the high end of the server business, but continuing to lose market share at the low end where Windows NT and Intel are doing so well.

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